Google Company Analysis

Prepared by Matt Decuir

Projections
Google has substantial growth remaining for future years.  The projected income statement, Exhibit 8 , shows that in the next three years, Google’s sales will increase to $16.532 billion in 2007, $25.726 billion in 2008, and $39.791 billion in 2009.  Beyond that, in 2016, their sales are projected to be at $155.388 billion, reaching $253.398 billion in 2026.  These sales figures use growth rates determined by a logistic growth function, shown in Exhibit 9.  Furthermore, using a trend function for cost of goods sold and selling, general, and administrative costs yielded accurate projections because, it takes fixed and variable costs into account.  No information is known about non-operating income and interest expense in the future, so the projections show no change.  Also, a 35% tax rate is assumed, based on previous income tax figures.  The logistic growth function in Exhibit 9 assumes that 20% of Google’s supernormal growth remains, as well as an initial growth rate of 56%, a perpetual growth rate of 5% and 7 years until supernormal growth dissipates.  The resulting graph shows the gradual decrease in sales growth, leveling off at 5%, roughly 12 years into the future.  The projected common size analysis, Exhibit 10, shows that over the next 20 years, cost of goods sold maintains a level of roughly 40% of sales, while SG&A expenses equate to roughly 26% of sales, and net income maintains a level of slightly more than 22% of sales.  Exhibit 11 shows the projected balance sheet, which includes a number of assumptions.  A 70 day cash and equivalent balance is assumed, while 45.5 days of receivables, 61 days of other current assets, and a 4.43 turnover rate of net property and equipment per year are assumed as well.  Furthermore, 18.24 days of accounts payable, 127.42 days of accrued expenses and 13.56 days of other current liabilities are assumed on the liability side of the balance sheet.   These assumptions continue trends in the activity ratios based on historic balance sheet data.  The balance sheet shows that Google is expected to have excess cash, which is shown as short term investments, amounting to $9.516 billion in 2007, $9.174 billion in 2008, and $8.494 billion in 2009.  Also, retained earnings continue to grow as net income maintains a positive value, while all other items on the balance sheet remain unchanged.  Exhibit 12 shows that the activity ratios assumed in the balance sheet are maintained over a 20 year span.  Also, Google’s gross profit margin is expected to stay at a level of roughly 60% over the next 20 years.   Furthermore, the profit ratios show that in 2026, Google is expected to have a return on assets of only 8.6%, and a return on equity of 9.0%, significant decreases from current figures.
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